The Best Is Yet To Come

I keep hearing the following phrase, "America's best days lie ahead." President Obama has said as much, and today Warren Buffet, America’s most beloved investor and resident financial genius, said precisely that in his annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In an introduction to his report that can only be referred to as a polemic, Buffet railed against ill-conceived business practices, foolish federal regulators and the twin pups of industry and state government who are now suckling their federal mommy dry. Buffet did all this in less than a page and with what seems to be a comfortable, well-worn sense of humor. It is precisely his demeanor, exuding experience and common sense, that lends credibility to his comment. Even if I wanted to I couldn't really sit here and pretend that I am capable of arguing with Warren Buffet over whether or not the American financial system will rebound or reach new heights. What I can comment on is, should it?

Before you close your browser and delete my email from your address book, let me explain what I mean. In my last post I shared my thoughts on the Story of Stuff, a short video on how much Americans consume, communicated in a way that is neither patronizing nor insulting. For those who didn’t read the post or watch the video (family members I’m looking at you!), Story of Stuff narrator Annie Leonard explains how and why we produce and consume at the exorbitant rates that we do. My point, the one that’s got you debating my sanity and/or allegiance to the US, is that perhaps returning America to its economic dominance is not what’s best for Americans or anybody else. Our high rates of production are causing severe environmental degradation, increases in worldwide poverty, and will continue to cause civil strife and conflict, likely at steadily increasing rates. When viewed through that prism, perhaps a resurgent American economy isn’t such a great thing after all. That is, of course, unless it can be modified so as to be less destructive and meet people’s needs in a more sustainable fashion. But let’s just assume for a moment that such a modification isn’t likely to occur. Now here’s where things get interesting. What if America’s best days aren’t spent as the world’s only superpower? What if America is in the throes of transition out of its hegemonic role?

That’s right; I said it, American transition. Let’s face facts you can’t stay on top forever. Didn’t work for the Romans, Brits or even the Beatles, and it won’t for the USA. From a purely historical perspective, dominant world powers (some might call them empires) eventually fall from their perch. This doesn’t mean that they all go the way of the Romans, however. In fact, more recent examples of empires which have transitioned and maintained a position of relative dominance include the British and French, and it is these cases that may serve as a model for an eventual American transition. But there is a problem with such a change, and this is the troubling thought I can’t seem to shake. History has witnessed world powers voluntarily pull-the-plug on their empires, but never in a unipolar world and never by a state with a military comparable in size and sophistication to that of the United States. This is uncharted territory people. How does a state with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and most advanced military force transition from a leader of nations to a leader among nations?

If conflict can’t bring it about (see comment on size of US’ nuclear arsenal) and economic conditions are only likely to exacerbate conflict (WWII for example), then only voluntary action, a conscious choice, can make it so. Judging by the United States recent and abysmal track record of yielding sovereignty (over any issue) what is the likelihood for such a monumental shift in its global position? Maybe Mr. Buffet is right, perhaps America can look forward to a bright and not-so-distant future. The more important point, however, is whether what we are reaching for is really what we need.

~ O.M.